The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new

Description: The Black Swan: Second Edition by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Estimated delivery 3-12 business days Format Paperback Condition Brand New Description A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yetcauses massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Talebshows in a playful way that black swan events explain almost everything aboutour world. Publisher Description The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we dont know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility."A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Author Biography Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York Universitys Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity"—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we dont understand. Talebs books have been published in forty-one languages. Details ISBN 081297381X ISBN-13 9780812973815 Title The Black Swan: Second Edition Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb Format Paperback Year 2010 Pages 480 Edition 10002nd Publisher Random House USA Inc GE_Item_ID:43673766; About Us Grand Eagle Retail is the ideal place for all your shopping needs! With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and over 1,000,000 in stock items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! Shipping & Delivery Times Shipping is FREE to any address in USA. Please view eBay estimated delivery times at the top of the listing. Deliveries are made by either USPS or Courier. We are unable to deliver faster than stated. International deliveries will take 1-6 weeks. NOTE: We are unable to offer combined shipping for multiple items purchased. This is because our items are shipped from different locations. Returns If you wish to return an item, please consult our Returns Policy as below: Please contact Customer Services and request "Return Authorisation" before you send your item back to us. Unauthorised returns will not be accepted. Returns must be postmarked within 4 business days of authorisation and must be in resellable condition. Returns are shipped at the customer's risk. We cannot take responsibility for items which are lost or damaged in transit. For purchases where a shipping charge was paid, there will be no refund of the original shipping charge. Additional Questions If you have any questions please feel free to Contact Us. Categories Baby Books Electronics Fashion Games Health & Beauty Home, Garden & Pets Movies Music Sports & Outdoors Toys

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